Analytics add up for Charlotte FC coach
Plus team tailgate and fan march postponed, Uronen takes on Finnish teammates, Abada's first MLS goal, previewing Sunday game vs. Minnesota and more
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Dean Smith, known as a ‘man manager,’ has bought into metrics as well, using math to build consistency
Using specialized statistics is not just for baseball junkies anymore. It’s widely used in soccer and has been emphasized with Charlotte FC. (Photo illustration created with DALL-E/ChatGPT)
After Charlotte FC got shut out by the worst team in Major League Soccer — numerically speaking — in New England and faced mounting frustration over scoring just six goals in its first seven games, Coach Dean Smith needed something extra to make a point to his players before they played Toronto on Saturday.
“I thought the lads were a little bit low this week,” Smith said. “I must admit I’ve been trying to lift them.”
So before the game, he pulled out some statistics and let numbers make a case for him. Using figures like “entries into the opponent’s box,” “chances created” and “quality of chances created” as well as a defensive metric like “expected goals against,” he reminded his players that goals — or a lack thereof — were only one measure of how they were actually performing. They were actually near the top of the league in multiple important categories.
Charlotte FC responded with a season-high three goals and only its second multi-goal game of the year in a 3-2 win over Toronto. Not only did statistical evidence help unlock players’ confidence, it also offered some insight into another side of Smith — the geekier side.
Smith brought a reputation to Charlotte from the English Premier League for being a “man manager,” a.k.a. a player’s coach. He has gone to great lengths to build bonds between players and staff. Now, we’re getting a glimpse into the importance he places on analytics, too.
Before Smith landed his dream job coaching his boyhood favorite, Aston Villa, to a Premier League promotion, he coached at Brentford, a lesser-known West London club that made its mark on the global soccer scene for its emphasis on analytics. To put it in “Moneyball” terms — the baseball statistics book-turned-hit-movie starring Brad Pitt — Brentford would be the Oakland A’s.
Brentford owner Matthew Benham, a former professional gambler who founded a statistical research company for professional gamblers, once fired a more traditional coach — Mark Warburton — the year after he got Brentford promoted to the English Championship. Who did Benham replace him with? Smith.
From 2015-2018, Smith helped Brentford establish a foothold in the English Championship. And when Smith left to coach at Aston Villa, Brentford got to the brink of a promotion to the English Premier League, which happened in 2021.
When asked Thursday, if he was a big stats guy, Smith laughed as he said:
I spent three years at Brentford, so I had to be. They definitely turned me into more of a stats guy. … I slowly got an appreciation for it by going into Brentford and knowing how they’d done their recruitments. It was really big. It really influenced me a lot, to be honest. The owner, Matthew Benham, is a wonderful person. He used to have his “table of justice,” and I used to ask him for the stats on the table of justice, because I knew if I was doing positive in them, I was doing all right.
A table of justice?
“He had his own system,” Smith explained. “He's a bit of a mathematical genius, and he had his own system where he would work out how a game would have gone by chances created and chances against you. And he would work out his own league table from there. So it was really interesting to look at as the season unfolded.”
By the time Smith arrived in Charlotte in December, he was sold on metrics. And even though Charlotte was entering just its third season, it’s already building a reputation for its emphasis on analytics, which it does both internally and in scouting of new players. Lisandro Isei, who was given the title Head of Analytics along with his initial role as Head of Technical Scouting, has four part-time analysts who work with him. In May of last year, American Soccer Analysis ranked Charlotte FC among its second-tier of MLS teams emphasizing analytics.
Analytics is one area where American professional soccer hasn’t necessarily lagged behind European soccer. Major League Soccer is embedded in the same U.S. sports culture as Major League Baseball, where people are generally receptive to stats. If anything, baseball spread its statistical influence overseas to soccer — not the other way around. For example, Liverpool FC is owned by John William Henry II, who also owns the Boston Red Sox, another “Moneyball” team.
So American soccer fans are comfortable using statistics like xG, or expected goals, which is a way of quantifying how good a shot opportunity is based on its location on the field. (Statistics companies compile data from a system of video cameras at each game.) Fans understand progressive passes — passes that travel 10 or more yards closer to the goal or are completed within an opponent’s penalty box. And they’re getting more comfortable with advanced metrics like PPDA, or “passes per defensive action,” which is a way to quantify how successful a team is at pressing (pressuring an opponent’s defensive players as they possess the ball in their own territory).
Smith said metrics can help not just players build confidence, but coaches, too.
He said:
It’s very easy, when you lose a game — and I’ve seen coaches do it before. All of a sudden, they haven’t won four or five games, and then they change and rip up the book and say, ‘I have to do something new.’ It’s not always about that. It’s just getting small details right sometimes. If you believe there’s a way the game should be played and how you should defend and how you should attack, then players can look at you, rightly so, a little bit confused, if you suddenly come in and say, ‘No, we're ripping up the book and changing it.’ It certainly brought more consistency about how I coach.
Supporters’ tailgate and march postponed in aftermath of violence that left leader of fan group injured
Fans in the East Goal supporters’ section cheering Charlotte FC on to 3-2 victory over Toronto last Saturday night. (Photo by Robert Taylor of The 5 and 2 Project.)
In the aftermath of a violent confrontation that sent Blue Furia president Juliana Gregory to the hospital with a bloody face, leaders of Charlotte FC’s fan groups decided to cancel the pre-game tailgate and march to Bank of America Stadium before Sunday night’s game against Minnesota.
The move came in an attempt to ease tensions among members of Blue Furia, which Gregory leads, and fan group Carolina Hooliganz. An eyewitness told The Ledger that Gregory and a female leader of the Carolina Hooliganz started arguing in the stadium during last Saturday’s game, before resuming the argument outside of Clutch Kitchen & Pour House on Cedar Street after the game. In an incident report with Charlotte Mecklenburg police, which listed five suspects, the victim alleged she was assaulted. As of Thursday, no arrests had been made in the case, according to a CMPD spokesman.
Cancelling Sunday’s tailgate was announced on social media by “The Royal Family,” which is a council made up of two leaders from each of the five main supporters groups.
The Royal Family has come to the decision, with the full support of the Club, to postpone this weekend's tailgate. We look forward to being together as one in the stadium to support the team as they face Minnesota United on Sunday. The tailgate will resume on May 4th.
At every home game since Charlotte FC’s debut in 2022, fans from a half dozen supporters groups have met up at a collective tailgate a couple of blocks from Bank of America Stadium on McNinch Street and then marched together to the stadium before the game, as they chant and sing. This Sunday, supporters groups are tailgating at separate locations.
Related Charlotte Ledger article:
Notable: Uronen facing Finnish teammates, MLS rule changes in effect, transfer window closes Tuesday
◼️ Insider info on Charlotte FC scouting report: Sunday’s game means a little extra to left back Jere Uronen, who plays on Finland’s national team with two members of the Minnesota United FC: Teemu Pukki, 34-year-old striker and designated player, and Robin Lod, 31-year-old midfielder.
“I will make sure to tell everyone exactly everything that they’re good at,” Uronen said Thursday, when asked by Charlotte FC’s radio play-by-play announcer Will Palaszczuk about facing Finnish teammates. “This will be the most important game for me of the season. You have the bragging rights. I’ve known those two for ages, I feel like. I speak with them weekly. They’re really, really good buddies of mine. We already started it [the trash talk]. Robin had a birthday (Wednesday) so it’s time to ruin his birthday week. So yeah, I’ll make sure to tell everyone everything I know.”
◼️ MLS rule changes in effect for Sunday: Now that referees have had a couple of games back in action after their labor dispute with the league ended, the new rules meant for the 2024 season will go into effect around the league Sunday. Among them will be a new off-field treatment rule, where a referee will stop play after an injured player has been on the ground for 15 seconds. That player will be removed from the field and must stay off the field for assessment for at least two minutes.
There will also be timed substitutions in which players are required to exit the field within 10 seconds, and in-stadium VAR announcements, in which video replay decisions will be announced and explained by the referee.
◼️ Primary transfer window closes Tuesday: Charlotte FC has until Tuesday to add a third U-22 initiative player (in addition to Kerwin Vargas and Nikola Petkovic) or the club will have to wait until the summer transfer window, July 18-Aug. 31, to make the addition.
The summer window is when Charlotte FC will be looking to add another designated player, or star player signed without regard to the salary cap. Since Liel Abada was signed as a young designated player (joining Enzo Copetti as a DP), Charlotte FC was allowed to add a third U-22 player and also to pursue another senior DP. Charlotte FC is no longer in the running for Uruguayan winger Luciano Rodriguez, whose Uruguayan club is more interested in shopping him to European teams later in the summer.
Quotable: Liel Abada on his Brandi Chastain-like goal celebration
Liel Abada celebrating his first goal for Charlotte FC. (Photo courtesy of Charlotte FC.)
Charlotte FC’s new Israeli winger and young designated player Liel Abada had to score twice last Saturday night to get his first goal in MLS. (His first one was waved off on a foul called against Bill Tuilloma.) To celebrate his goal, he ripped off his jersey (a la Brandi Chastain of the 1999 World Cup-winning U.S. Women’s National Team), which drew him a yellow card. The celebration was worth it for Abada, who left the club Celtic in Scotland to escape political turmoil and has made a fresh start in Charlotte. Abada was named as a reserve for MLS’s Team of the Matchday this week for his efforts.
He said:
I was waiting for that for a long time. I had a really really difficult time (in Scotland) and now I really feel happy and I just wanted to enjoy that.
Up Next: Charlotte FC (3-3-2) vs. Minnesota United FC (3-2-2)
When/Where: 6 p.m. Sunday, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
How to watch: FREE on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV. Find information about how to subscribe for the season here. Plus FS1 and FOX Deportes (in Spanish).
How to listen: WFNZ 92.7 in English, WOLS 106.1 in Spanish.
Notable:
Public service reminder: the game is on Sunday this week, and it starts at 6 p.m. That means family night for a lot of parents with young kids. Charlotte FC has no day games scheduled at home this season.
This is the second home game in a row in Charlotte FC’s six-of-eight game stretch at Bank of America, where the Crown is 3-0-1 this season. Charlotte FC is looking to extend its home unbeaten streak to 14 games in MLS play — 15 if you include Leagues Cup. Charlotte has not lost at home since May 20, 2023, when Hany Mukhtar scored a PK in extra time to give Nashville a 2-1 win.
Center back Adilson Malanda, who missed the Toronto game with a hamstring injury, returned to practice this week. Right back Nathan Byrne is still out as he attempts to secure a green card.
This is the first-ever meeting between Charlotte FC and Minnesota, though the teams got a taste of each other during the Coachella Invitational in the preseason, which ended in a scoreless draw.
Minnesota is 2-1 on the road this season vs. 1-1-2 at home.
Carroll Walton is a longtime baseball writer with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution now in her third season covering Charlotte FC. She would love to hear from you. E-mail her with questions, suggestions, story ideas and comments!
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