Mecklenburg's new virus cases are falling
This is a copy of an article that appeared in the April 14, 2020, edition of The Charlotte Ledger, an e-newsletter on local business news.
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The numbers are encouraging, but social distancing still needed, UNCC epidemiologist says; ‘heading in the right direction’
by Tony Mecia
The number of new confirmed coronavirus cases has been heading downward in Mecklenburg County for the last week or so, the first tangible sign of local progress against the disease.
Publicly available data from Mecklenburg County and from North Carolina’s Department of Health and Human Services show progress on a number of fronts, including:
Fewer average new confirmed cases per day in Mecklenburg County
A slowing rate of growth in new cases in both the county and the state
A continuously falling number of total statewide hospitalizations since late last week
“The trends overall seem to be very encouraging,” said Ahmed Arif, an epidemiologist with UNC Charlotte’s Department of Public Health Sciences. “It feels like a lot of things are heading in the right direction.”
Arif, who has a doctorate in epidemiology and specializes in respiratory diseases, examined the public data at the request of The Ledger. He says social distancing and other measures to prevent the spread of the disease remain important so the numbers don’t increase again.
His hopeful assessment contrasts with the somber tone of Mecklenburg County health officials. They acknowledge that the curve seems to be flattening but warn that too few local residents are taking the “stay at home” order seriously and caution that the worst is yet to come.
“Even with the current ‘stay at home’ order and levels of social distancing, we will start to see our healthcare systems becoming overwhelmed in early- to mid-May,” health director Gibbie Harris said at a news conference last week, citing county projections developed in conjunction with Atrium Health and Novant Health. Harris did not reply to a Ledger request for comment Monday.
Yet the number of new confirmed cases in Mecklenburg has declined in the last week. For the week ending April 4, the county reported 351 new cases. For the week ending Saturday (April 11), it reported 283. In total, as of Monday, the county reported 975 confirmed cases and 15 deaths, including three deaths announced Monday.
The number of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 has been declining in Mecklenburg County in the last week, according to an analysis of public data by epidemiologist Ahmed Arif of UNC Charlotte. Cases statewide increased last week compared with the week before, though the rate of growth is slowing.
Mecklenburg County has not reported more than 44 cases in a single day since Tuesday, April 7 — a week ago today — and the growth rate of daily confirmed cases is in the low single digits. (Source: Ledger analysis of Mecklenburg County health data)
Statewide, the number of new cases increased last week compared with the previous week. The number of statewide hospitalizations has declined since Friday. Gov. Roy Coopersaid Monday the virus is spreading at a “much slower pace” because of social distancing rules.
The number of hospitalizations statewide is higher than it was a week ago but has been declining since Friday. (Source: Analysis of state data by UNC Charlotte public health professor Ahmed Arif)
Mecklenburg County does not release data on daily hospitalizations. The only data the county releases daily is the total number of confirmed cases in the county and deaths. Calculating new daily cases and the rate of increase, which can indicate how quickly the virus is spreading locally, requires (basic) math.
A few caveats: With testing limited, the data on confirmed cases does not precisely reflect the spread of Covid-19 in the population. And just because the numbers are down does not mean they will continue to decline.
Predicting the future is notoriously tricky, but earlier doomsday estimates have not materialized:
A projection three weeks ago from the University of Washington — touted under the News & Observer headline “COVID-19 could kill 2,400 in NC and strain available hospital beds, projection model says” — forecast a peak of next week (April 22), with 56 North Carolinians per day dying of the disease and a shortage of 278 intensive care unit beds. State data through Monday show 86 deaths total and 842 available beds.
On April 2, the CEOs of Atrium and Novant said they urgently needed a field hospital with 3,000 beds. The following day, County Manager Dena Diorio said: “The need for those 3,000 beds appears pretty likely.” But four days later, the hospitals downsized their request to 600 beds, and today there’s still no concrete plan for a field hospital. City Fire Chief Reginald Johnson told City Council members Monday night that the hospitals are reviewing models and “we hope to have a decision from them this week” on whether a field hospital is needed to accommodate an expected surge in “about mid-May.”
Although government health officials in Charlotte and Raleigh seem nowhere near close to discussing how and when to ease some of the restrictions, some residents are already contemplating a return to more normal life. Those debates are starting to take place elsewhere in the country but have not yet come to North Carolina. Governors of six Northeastern states said Monday they are forming task forces to discuss reopening.
A Facebook group called ReopenNC has attracted 22,000 members in the last week. Its page says: “We are losing our small businesses, which are the backbone of our economy. The shutdown is not warranted, nor sustainable for our area. The vulnerable can be isolated or protected in other ways, without sacrificing our entire state economy.” — Cristina Bolling contributed to this article.
Update coming today: Mecklenburg commissioners are scheduled to receive an update from Diorio and Harris on the county’s response to the pandemic today at 2:30 p.m.
Additional reading: “With Cases Slowing, Will Mecklenburg Need Field Hospital?” (WFAE)
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The Charlotte Ledger is an e-newsletter and web site publishing timely, informative, and interesting local business news and analysis Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays, except holidays and as noted. We strive for fairness and accuracy and will correct all known errors. The content reflects the independent editorial judgment of The Charlotte Ledger. Any advertising, paid marketing, or sponsored content will be clearly labeled.
Executive editor: Tony Mecia; Managing editor: Cristina Bolling; Contributing editor: Tim Whitmire; Reporting intern: David Griffith