Weather Extra: A tricky snow to forecast

Best guess? 1-1.5 inches of snow starting late Friday, with roads slick after about 10 p.m. and into Saturday morning. Cold temps and wind are a sure bet, though.

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Possible bursts of ‘thunder snow,’ but look for about an inch in most areas; could be last winter storm for a while

by Steve Lyttle

I know, you’re saying that the snow forecast around here is always tricky, but Friday night’s situation is a bit trickier than usual. By now, you’ve probably heard that a big storm system will form Friday off the Carolinas coast, gradually move northward, and bring heavy snow to some part of the East Coast.

But that coastal system is not what will bring us snow late Friday and early Saturday. The coastal low is too far east of us for that. Rather, it will be a trailing area of upper-level low pressure that will cross the region Friday night.

The computer models are having a real battle, trying to determine how that trailing area of upper-level low pressure will affect the whole situation. And that’s why we're seeing all kinds of forecasts.

Eric Webb, a UNC Charlotte and N.C. State-educated meteorologist, wrote Thursday morning that the upper-level low will have quite a bit of energy as it crosses the Piedmont — enough energy to possibly produce thunder snow. That means there will be a snow version of “downpours” in a few spots. If you’re in such a spot, you could get 3 to 4 inches of snow. Otherwise, it looks as if 1 inch will be the average for our area.

This snow will fall amid cold temperatures, so you can expect roads to get very slippery after 10 or 11 p.m. Friday. That will continue well into Saturday morning, because we’ll struggle to climb above freezing during the day Saturday.

There’s no snow prediction map yet, because we’re still trying to figure this all out. But here are some takeaways:

1. We’ll have a period of rain (8-10 or 11 p.m.) and snow (10 or 11 p.m. - 3 or 4 a.m.) late Friday and Saturday.

2. Generally, we’re probably looking at accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches.

3. A few places that are under heavy bursts of snow could get 3-4 inches.

4. Saturday will be very cold and windy. It won’t be a nice day to be outdoors.

5. While this will be our third winter storm in a two-week period, it probably will be our last for a while. The pattern will change next week, and we’ll get warmer weather (possibly for quite a while).

Thursday: Sunny and chilly. High near 45.

Thursday night: Increasing high cloudiness. Low around 30.

Friday: Cloudy and chilly, with a high of 47. A few rain showers will arrive by 5 or 6 p.m.

Friday night: Overcast and cold, with rain showers turning to a steady light to moderate snow. The snow should end by around 4 a.m. Saturday. Low of 26.

Saturday: Sunny and quite cold, with a high of 36. There will be a stiff northwest breeze of around 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, that will drop wind chills to the upper teens.

Saturday night: Clear and cold, with the winds dying down. Low of 18.

Sunday: Sunny and cold. High of 44.

Monday: Sunny and milder. High of 52.

Tuesday: Sunshine, mixed with some clouds. High of 54.

Wednesday: Cloudy, with a few showers around. High of 57.

Steve Lyttle is a longtime Charlotte-area weather writer with a passion for meteorology and delivering smart, insightful updates that aim to inform and educate. Follow his “Weather With Steve” Facebook page for daily updates on Charlotte weather.

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