Weather Extra: Best guess is 1-5" of rain on Friday night/Saturday
Exactly how much rain Hurricane Ian will bring to Charlotte is still unknown, but expect showers to intensify Friday night and taper off Saturday into Sunday; You might rethink Saturday outdoor plans
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Computer models are mixed, but it’s clear a messy weekend is in store
The latest forecasts show the remnants of Hurricane Ian could be headed toward Charlotte, bringing rain and wind. But forecasts disagree, and there’s a lot of uncertainty. (Source: NOAA projection as of 2 p.m. Tuesday.)
by Steve Lyttle
We’re about three days away from the remnants of Hurricane Ian beginning to affect the Charlotte region, and we still don’t have the answers to how the weekend’s weather will unfold for our area.
Justin Lane, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., put it best Tuesday afternoon, saying that based on current computer guidance, much of the area will see at least a couple inches of rain on Friday night and into Saturday, “but how much above and beyond that remains a mystery for now.”
The best guess (as of Tuesday evening) for the Charlotte region is the following:
Clouds increase Thursday and Thursday night.
Friday is a cloudy, cool (mid 60s) and breezy day.
Showers arrive Friday afternoon and increase in frequency and intensity Friday night.
Saturday is a rainy, breezy day, with the rain coming down hard at times. How much rain? Well, that’s a great question. There’s some indication that a reasonably stable atmosphere will limit the amount of rain that falls from Ian in our area. But that’s not a certainty. The computer models differ on that. So at least 1 inch is likely. But it could be 4 or 5 inches, with more in the mountains.
An area of dry weather, called a “dry slot,” moves into the Piedmont late Saturday night, and the rain showers taper off.
Some shower activity hangs around Sunday, because the center of what’s left of Ian is likely to be somewhere in the Piedmont or Sandhills of North Carolina.
People don’t like uncertainty in their weather forecasts. Unfortunately, Hurricane Ian and the other weather systems involved in this storm are creating plenty of uncertainty.
If your plans include outdoor activities this weekend, look for an alternative. If you have tickets to a college football game Saturday, bring a poncho — a good one. Fans headed to Sunday’s Panthers’ game are in better shape. Showers are likely to be scattered Sunday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast shows Charlotte with 4-6” of rain, but it could be less, and there’s still uncertainty. (Source: NOAA projections as of 2 p.m. Tuesday)
Forecast track is a mess: It’s not clear exactly where Ian will make landfall in Florida, and that’s expected to happen Wednesday evening or night. It will happen somewhere on Florida’s Gulf Coast, but rather than hit Tampa directly, the latest guidance indicates it will be farther south, in the Port Charlotte-Punta Gorda area.
To put it in plain words, the forecast track of Ian is a total mess. Computer models are putting out all kinds of possibilities, and while tropical storms and hurricanes always spin off a few surprises, this storm is beyond surprising.
‘Fish storm’?: The big reason for the uncertainty is due to conditions far to the north. A trough (or dip in the jet stream) is in place across the eastern United States, from Canada down to North Carolina. Were that trough to stay in place, it would “catch” Ian and steer it rather quickly across Florida and into the Atlantic. Ian would become what meteorologists call a “fish storm.”
But the trough is expected to slide eastward and be replaced by a high pressure system. And that high is forecast to block Ian from moving northward very quickly. So the forecast is for the hurricane to drift across Florida, perhaps reaching the Atlantic, and then turn north again and drift slowly up through Georgia, South Carolina and eventually North Carolina.
Because of all this, hurricane watches and warnings are likely on the Atlantic side too — from central Florida up to north of Charleston. Yes, this is a weird one.
Steve Lyttle is a longtime Charlotte-area weather writer with a passion for meteorology and delivering smart, insightful updates that aim to inform and educate. Follow his “Weather With Steve” Facebook page for daily updates on Charlotte weather.
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