Weather Extra: Snow a 'guessing game' but wow it's cold
Best guess: 1"+ of snow tonight, making roads treacherous until mid-morning Saturday; lowest daily high temperature in 3 years
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It’s still unclear how much snow we’ll see … but how long since it was this cold?
by Steve Lyttle
Computer guidance continues to wrestle with the question of how much snow, if any, will fall in the Charlotte area later today (more about that later), but something being lost in all this is the cold. We're getting some serious north-of-the-Mason-Dixon-Line cold today in the Carolinas.
In fact, it’s been more than three years since it’s been this cold in Charlotte. Most of the forecasts you see will list today’s high as somewhere around 32, but the official high will be 34 degrees. That was our temperature at midnight.
In looking back at the records, the last time we had a daily high of 34 or colder was Dec. 9, 2018, when it reached 34. We haven't had a sub-freezing day in Charlotte since Jan. 7, 2018, when our high was 31. It was a miserably cold start to 2018. Between Dec. 31, 2017, and Jan. 7, 2018, for a stretch of eight days, we never got out of the 30s for a high.
But you really want to talk about the snow, right? Well, here’s a shocker — it’s still a guessing game. The real question will be how much moisture the coastal storm is able to sling back inland across the Piedmont. So here’s a summary of the computer data and meteorologists’ best guesses:
We might see some snow flurries during the afternoon.
Any steadier snow is more likely from around 5 or 6 p.m. until the early-morning hours Saturday.
The best guess for Mecklenburg County is 1-1.5 inches, with the heavier amounts being in the eastern part of the county. Places west and northwest of Mecklenburg will get a dusting or less.
CAUTION: The air is so cold this time that any snow will stick immediately. That means roads tonight are likely to get very slippery. In these types of conditions, snow melts briefly when it hits roadways, then quickly freezes. Conditions could be treacherous from this evening until mid- to late-morning Saturday.
A big ice storm still looms for northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina.
I’ve included the Storm Severity prediction map from the government’s Weather Prediction Center. The western edge of the yellow zone might get pushed farther west, across Charlotte, if the storm proves to be a bit stronger:
Source: NOAA/National Weather Service
And now for the forecast:
Friday: Overcast and unseasonably cold, with a chilly breeze at times. A few snow flurries are possible, and a few snow showers could move into the area by 3 or 4 p.m. Snow showers will be more frequent in Union, Anson, Stanly and eastern Cabarrus counties of North Carolina; and in Lancaster and Chesterfield counties of South Carolina.
Friday night: Cloudy and cold, with off-and-on light snow. Snow could accumulate around 1.5-2 inches in Union and eastern Mecklenburg counties, and about 1 inch in the rest of Mecklenburg. The snow should end by 11 p.m. or so. Low around 19.
Saturday: Clearing skies early, followed by sunshine. Cold, with a high of 38.
Saturday night: Clear and cold. Low of 21. People headed to church Sunday morning will have to watch for black ice.
Sunday: Sunny and not as harsh. High around 45.
Sunday night: Clear and cold. Low around 25.
Monday: Sunny and chilly. High of 47.
Tuesday: Clouds, for the most part, with a few showers. High of 47.
Wednesday: And another surge of cold air moves in! Sunny, with a high of 44.
Thursday: Sunny and quite cold. High of 38.
Steve Lyttle is a longtime Charlotte-area weather writer with a passion for meteorology and delivering smart, insightful updates that aim to inform and educate. Follow his “Weather With Steve” Facebook page for daily updates on Charlotte weather.
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