Weather Extra: The chance of ice is increasing
More sleet and freezing rain are expected Friday than earlier anticipated; storm expected to arrive in the early afternoon
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Storm predicted to start as snow in Charlotte by 1 or 2 p.m., then change to sleet and freezing rain before ending before dawn Saturday; ice could cause power outages, dangerous road conditions
by Steve Lyttle
As our winter storm system takes shape off the Texas coast and begins heading east-northeast, the computer models have a message for all of us in the Charlotte region and elsewhere in the Carolinas: Uhh ... this one might be a bit stronger than we first thought.
The computer-generated data is painting the picture of a stronger storm system than earlier predicted. We’re not talking about “stronger” in terms of more snow. In this case, “stronger” means more precipitation and more freezing rain and sleet instead of snow.
Here’s why: An amped-up low pressure system will drag in more mild air off the Atlantic and up from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Charlotte area, that mild air won't be strong enough to stretch all the way to the surface. But it will create a pocket of warm air aloft, and that warm air will either melt and then refreeze the snow (into sleet), or melt the snow into rain that falls and then freezes when it hits the ground.
Sleet vs. freezing rain: A Winter Storm Warning is now posted for all of the Charlotte region and much of the Carolinas. In the immediate Charlotte area, the warning is for the combination of sleet and ice. Both sleet and freezing rain are nasty, for different reasons.
Sleet has a habit of sticking and freezing together on the ground, creating extremely slippery conditions. The Charlotte Checkers could play on your street if there’s enough sleet.
Freezing rain coats power lines and tree limbs and knocks out electricity, especially when the ice buildups are 1/4 (0.25) inch or more. The National Weather Service says some areas near or south of Charlotte could get up to 0.3 of an inch.
National Weather Service meteorologist Thomas Winesett says the I-85 corridor is expected to be a “big mixed bag of several hours of snow, changing to a lot of sleet, and then ending with a couple tenths of an inch of ice.” Some locations near or just north of I-85 may see upwards of 2 inches or even isolated 3 inches of pure sleet.
That is ugly. Travel on Friday night and Saturday morning will be problematic. Our hope now is to avoid widespread power outages, but there is bigger potential for that issue than there was in earlier forecasts.
What to expect: As of Thursday evening, we expect snow to begin in Charlotte by 1 or 2 p.m. on Friday, accumulating an inch, before changing to sleet by late afternoon. It will sleet for several hours before changing to freezing rain late Friday night and ending by 5 a.m. Saturday. Expect 1-2 inches of mostly sleet, plus 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice.
Some 4 to 7 inches of snow will fall in the mountains.
A couple of other things to note:
◼️ The brine solution that crews applied to area roads in recent days should help a bit. Often in Carolinas winter storms, the precipitation starts as rain, washing away the brine. This time, roads are cold, so the snow should stick — and the brine solution should help melt the snow, at least at first.
◼️ Black ice is a likely problem on Sunday morning. The severity of the issue will depend on how much frozen precipitation is on the roads Saturday, and how much of it melts under the afternoon sun (with highs around only 41 or 42). But it’s a good bet that there will be a lot of ice on Sunday morning.
Closures announced: School districts around the region have announced that they’ll be closed Friday. Charlotte-Mecklenburg, Union, Gaston, Fort Mill, Iredell-Statesville, Hickory, York and Lancaster schools will all either be fully closed or have remote learning days.
All Charlotte Mecklenburg Library locations will close at noon on Friday and remain closed through Saturday.
WCNC meteorologist Brad Panovich posted on social media on Thursday: “Just preparing you now: light snow/sleet/ice is not as pretty as you think.”
Steve Lyttle is a longtime Charlotte-area weather writer with a passion for meteorology and delivering smart, insightful updates that aim to inform and educate. Follow his “Weather With Steve” Facebook page for daily updates on Charlotte weather.
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Excellent weather report, unfortunately!