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OK, we will call it a day. Thank you again to our guests, Kris Carroll of Carroll Financial, Will Ertel of Tassel Capital and Nick Foy of Greenway Wealth. And thanks to all for the good questions.

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founding

Thanks, Tony.

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Guys, in your replies to questions, if you could please use the "reply" button under the question, it will help keep the discussion more organized, thanks

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Today, they are taking questions about personal finance, as the stock market is volatile (indexes fell another 4-6% again today), and there appears to be a lot of financial disruption heading our way. They are not here to give stock recommendations. If you have a question, it might be helpful to give a little background about your situation. We will go until 5:30pm and will try to answer as many questions as time allows.

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author

We are joined today by three local financial advisors.

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founding

Thanks for having me Tony.

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Good afternoon, everybody. This is Tony Mecia with The Charlotte Ledger, a business e-newsletter and online publication focusing on original, local business news, which lately has been almost all related to the effects of the coronavirus. You can find out more about us at https://charlotteledger.substack.com/. There is a free version you are welcome to sign up for, as well as a paid version that gives you access to everything we do.

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It looks as though the new questions are about at an end, so we will wrap this up. But before we do, does anybody have any general nuggets of wisdom they would like to share?

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founding

Sure! I think investors who have developed a sensible allocation between broadly invested, low-cost stocks, and high-quality bonds, basically have two main tools in their toolkit:

1. rebalancing

2. tax-loss harvesting

So much of investing is about controlling what you can and ignoring what you can't, and ignoring those things we can't control is so important.

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Thank you all.

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founding

Thanks for having us Tony!

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founding

All market turmoil creates opportunity. The difficulty is having the fortitude to take advantage of those opportunities when they present themselves. This too shall pass and great companies will come out the other end still great companies.

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founding

No - but thanks Tony.....enjoyed being 'virtually' here...

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author

Have any of you made recommendations on asset allocations recently?

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* changes

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founding

I agree with Nick below.... finding a way to more aggressive WITH LONG-TERM money will prove to be a savvy move - but it may take awhile to look and feel good.

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founding

We've made some recommendations but we're at a point right now to rebalance and rebalancing inevitably means selling some bonds to buy some stocks. I've also reallocated within the bond space within the last two weeks but that might be a little more detailed than makes sense here.

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founding

We've had a couple of clients who wanted to be MORE aggressive to capture stocks at cheaper prices. But it's so important to recognize the importance of having some options, and including a healthy amount of fixed income typically does the trick. But if markets keep dropping, or don't recover for awhile, it's nice to keep some reserve assets to buy as time goes on.

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founding

We can tell when the market really starts panic, though, when even "safe" assets start to get sold off. We saw this during the 2008-09 downturn, when for a bit short-term high quality corporate bonds dipped a bit. They've done that again this year.

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author

What are some of the most common concerns you are hearing from clients this week, and how are you addressing them?

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founding

To be honest, clients that are very concerned about the stock market drop. Most clients confidence their long-term strategy is appropriate for rough markets – perhaps a testament to matching their tolerance for risk with their actual portfolio. Specifically, we think this is a good opportunity for clients to consider converting IRA assets to Roth IRA assets, accelerating gifting to children (for older clients), or adding money to the markets – if they have the cash and courage!

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founding

Our clients seems to be amazingly well trained! Most of the calls and emails we're getting are asking what they can do to take advantage of down markets. It's so important to have a portfolio design that takes systemic shocks like this one into account, so that when they happen, we know we anticipated it. That doesn't mean we know the cause, or the severity, but we know that, with some frequency, markets go crazy. Our clients seem to have gotten that message pretty well.

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founding

Honestly I'm probably hearing less than you would think. I think we've worked hard to prepare people for inevitable market downturns. The most concerned clients tend to be ones that have retired since the last downturn but for the most part we haven't had to make major changes. You have to get the risk profile right the first time and if you're positioned correctly this kind of downturn shouldn't be an overly emotional event.

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founding

Agreed

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It usually takes a few minutes for folks to get in here. One question I saw today: If the government gives out stimulus checks, what's the best way to use those: save, spend, pay down debt or something else?

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founding

The best way to spend it is probably the way that best advances your long-term goals. Because we have long-term goals, right? For the average american with $400 in savings, hoarding the cash is probably best - particularly with questionable income or growth prospects in the term. Short answer, use it accomplish the goals you had four weeks ago. Better yet, use it to accomplish your goals from four weeks that have now been updated to account for the current uncertainty.... I'll probably give some and hold the rest for an upcoming family wedding.

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founding

It depends on your unique situation. If you have high interest debt it's a great time to pay it down but with interest rates this low, good debt may be the lowest rate in your lifetime so there's no clear answer. I think using the money to invest would be great but I think most will go out and spend it.

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Thank you, Kris, Will and Nick, for being here and testing out this format. If you have a question, go ahead and ask it.

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Nick Foy, CFP, is founder of Greenway Wealth Advisors, an independent firm based in South End. His company specializes in working with generation x and y clients.

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Will Ertel is a CFP and CPA. He founded Tassel Capital in 2002 and serves planning and investment clients in the Charlotte area from his Matthews office (though mostly with Zoom this month).

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Kris Carroll, CFA, CFP, is a financial advisor and owner of Carroll Financial Associates, an independent RIA in Charlotte, which was founded in 1980 and currently manages over $3 billion in client assets.

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founding

Good question Josh. We really see this as more of a 9/11 type of event, a shock to the system, than a event with financial origins. Now, of course, it's bled over into the realm of finance and is impacting the entire economy. But if we can get a handle on the issues related to the disease itself, I'd expect there to be a lot of pent up demand and for the market to recover pretty rapidly.

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One general comment about risk. There are many investors who felt like an 80% stock mix was okay who are now realizing they are uncomfortable with it. It is sooooo difficult to adopt a moderate to balanced strategy when things are going up - like from 2009 - 2019 with a few exceptions. Important to always be assessing both your risk appetite and your risk capacity.... that's where I think professional advisors can help clients the most....

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founding

I agree. People tend to think they have a higher risk tolerance when things are going well and suddenly believe they have a lower tolerance when things are going poorly. Understanding the difference between risk tolerance, risk capacity and the risk required to reach your goals is a really important part of financial planning.

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founding

The real enemy for most long-term investors isn't these types of events when the market goes mad. For long-term investors (that includes some retirees who might live into their 90's) is inflation eroding the value of our dollars.

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founding

Great point Nick. this is the number one reason that people can't just move to cash. You can trade in the uncertainty of markets for the certainty of inflation eating away at your dollars.

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I saw that question come to you, and I think you had the right answer; it depends. For many Americans, just having enough liquidity is an issue, so even if there is some outstanding credit card debt, holding sufficient funds in a high yield savings account (i.e. not with a brick and mortar bank paying 0.10%) is really important.

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founding

David: for retirees, it's so important to have enough in "conservative" assets that aren't as affected by stock market risk. Of course, when the market is in full blown panic mode, everything seems to move in lockstep. But, over the intermediate and long-term, we have a pretty good idea of the types of assets that are less volatile and can form the foundation of a portfolio. For many of our retired clients, it's a balancing act between not taking on too much market risk so that the portfolio won't drop by 40% when the market does, but taking on enough market risk to minimize longevity risk, that is the risk of outliving your assets.

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How much do you think the market turmoil is Covid-19 and how much is the oil wars? And any thoughts on how the oil war will ultimately play out?

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founding

It's actually more than just those two things. You have COVID 19 , the oil wars and you also have uncertainty among the political situation. I think there's a real worry that a health crisis could turn into much more. the oil wars really are an interesting subject which we could do a whole conversation on some time because i think the news coming out of Russia is intentionally misleading. The last thing that's contributing to how much this has come down is how much we went up before it.

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founding

But I think it's a combination of both of those things. The market is an efficient pricing machine though, and really markets are just taking in all sorts of new information and resetting expectations based on what we know.

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founding

I think there are three primary drivers to the current market turmoil. First, the actions people are taking to avoid the coronavirus is the most significant. Secondly, the current oil wars. The third driver is the actual economic impact of those with the coronavirus. How will be will play out? Probably after much pain, Russia and OPEC will agree to reduce their output. Their hope is the economic hardship on oil-producing nations will be severe.

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Interesting, thanks.

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founding

One thing I know...it sure does take a long time to see any impact at the retail level when prices drop! When oil prices go up, it seems like gas prices go up overnight.

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Agreed!

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If I receive a check, with no way to opt out, I would donate it to Crisis Assistance Ministry. If it isn’t tax-free, then would I be able to deduct it?

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Any charitable gift you make – regardless of where you got the income – as long as you can itemize your taxes at the end of the year.

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You could deduct it as long as you're itemizing charitable deductions.

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Thank you, Nick

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Also, regarding stimulus checks, surely there will be a way to opt out of receiving one?

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founding

Probably not. When they did stimulus checks during the Bush administration they sent checks to everyone who had filed a tax return the previous year. You could certainly choose not to cash it.

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Very nice and informative article. LOVED the simple yet through writing. I too have just started a blog, and am awaiting nice comments.

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Hey, Nick, this is Jody do you think a small business like my medical practice will get some quick help if we continue to keep our employees hired? We saw 6 patients today, this is our biggest season, but we have tried to avoid exposures to staff and our patients which I think is the right thing to do. Several physicians have called and heard we are "closed" we are not actually closed just limiting who we see and doing many telephone calls. All physicians have expressed what a financial crisis this is going to be for them. I'm sure besides the real threat of catching this terrible virus we are worried about surviving as a business.

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I would love to give you some positive feedback on this Jody but I really think it's going to be hard for them to make direct stimulus to small businesses in the short term.

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Hi Jody! I would imagine that physicians would be relatively near the top of the pecking order as far as who will receive support, as your service is so important to our community.

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Also, trying to figure out a way to move to video chat consults might be critical for physicians during this time.

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I'm thinking there are whole parts of our society that are going to have to learn and get used to new technologies overnight

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Absolutely! Everyone is learning what Zoom is right now!

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We are using telephone for now but trying to get a telehealth video going asap. I've looked into Zoom and Cisco Webex. HIPPA is being waived.

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founding

G Suite is HIPPA compliant, or you can switch it on. We use Google Meet for our online meetings: https://support.google.com/a/answer/3407054?hl=en

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Thanks Will and Kris

Part of our monthly income is an annuity.

How ”safe” Is that?

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I am in the same situation. It is supposedly “guaranteed“ by Prudential. Fingers crossed

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founding

Unfortunately, this is an impossible question to answer without knowing what the annuity is. In general payments from insurance companies are heavily regulated.

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What do you think of John Childs suggestion in an article this week of the Treasury buying equities (ETFs only to keep the scales even). https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2020/03/14/why_not_equity_504499.html#!

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founding

This whole topic gets into the political risk that will come to President and Congress about (perhaps inadvertently) picking winners and losers. Do you bail out the shareholders of the airlines but not the cruise industry? Can you 'save' the airline industry without saving Delta, American, United, Southwest, etc. Difficult questions - unfortunately, Congress and President will probably decide in a very short period of time... hindsight will certainly see things much clearer...

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founding

I've got the same knee-jerk reaction he mentions: I'd rather not see the government own businesses to any large extent.

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Thanks

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Agree. It really shouldn't be the governments job to prop up the stock market like that. To me that seems at odds with a free market.

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Thanks

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founding

Of course! Great question.

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Hello! Any crystal-ball gazing on the real estate market? We were just about to buy a home (and sell a couple of investment properties.)

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I think of real estate as a use asset which makes it easier to avoid the guessing game and trying to make sure you get the timing right. If you think you want to live somewhere for 7 years or more, and you can afford it, great!

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Right - but we are looking at selling and buying, which does make it trickier.

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founding

Yes for sure. We've watched mortgage rates bounce all over the place, and banks have increased closing costs because so many people have been trying to refinance. My guess is that most people are seeing beyond the temporary market shock and aren't basing their real estate decisions on the impact of a virus, but I don't know how long that will last.

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founding

Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball for this. Currently, most consumers and investors worried about getting child care for their children or preserving their life savings in the stock market. I expect that this will slow down for traffic for almost a property for the time being… Except for people desperate to find a place to live.

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Understood. Our agent says she is down about 20% in activity but that is due to overseas clients not able to get over here and finalize deals. Money is SO cheap right now, hopefully that will incentivize some people into buying.

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Understood. Our agent says she is down about 20% in activity but that is due to overseas clients not able to get over here and finalize deals. Money is SO cheap right now, hopefully that will incentivize some people into buying.

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Can your speaker address market liquidity, specifically ability for business to get lines of credit. Is the US Treasury getting into providing this? If so, do they have the platforms set up to do it quickly?

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founding

A good question about market liquidity. Generally, liquidity is the ability to get access to cash very quickly. It will be very difficult for the US Treasury to provide lines of credit to very small businesses. They provide liquidity to banks routinely, but providing lines of credit to major corporations or even industries is difficult. It will be very challenging for them to provide relief to small businesses. This is sad, because it is the small businesses that will cash the quickest.

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I know short term unsecured loans for small business the lenders look at the trailing 3 months of revenue to determine how much to lend and the industry and some other factors, but now if their business is grinding to a halt, I wonder if they will be able to procure.

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Thank you

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The treasury is working on this but they do not have the platforms to do this quickly. It's been suggested by a number of politicians and we still haven't seen anything definitive.

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Thank you

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A common question I suspect: any wisdom for older folks living off carefully curated retirement savings beyond living small and trying to ride out the turbulence?

Can we ”ride out” a full-blown depression?

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Can we ride-out a full-blown depression? Wow! We to define ‘ride-out’ and “full-blown depression” to begin to address this. I think what investors should focus on is addressing short-term goals appropriately, but also addressing goals appropriately. There is significant internal pressure right now to change your long-term goal to “just stop losing money.” That will probably not work very well with long-term goals. Is also very difficult to develop or revise a financial plan in the middle of a market crisis like this one. It is also very tough to generalize about this because your preparedness for the current market environment is very specific to your circumstances. Great question – I wish I had better answers.

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founding

Depression is a big word. It certainly depends on your unique situation and how well prepared you were for a market downturn. While this is a very fast downturn it's size isnt unprecedented. A carefully curated retirement savings should have the ability to weather the storm.

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Nancy, in all likelihood you would just a check in the mail. I assume it would be tax-free (more details to follow) , so I would suggest you keep it....

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I was thinking about that today too, Nancy. I haven't read the details but it would be nice to make sure they go to those who are really in need.

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But when? Who knows.

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The market was gangbusters until only recently, even as CORVID-19 marched across Asia. Is there reason for optimism, that once the worst of the pandemic is behind us, we will have a faster recovery than in 2009? And how should our thinking about recovery influence how we invest for the next 180 days?

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Certainly. Markets that go down quickly tend to go up quickly. That's certainly no guarantee though. But with how fast things have gone down there's reason to believe things will go up quickly too. When you look at the next 180 days think about what companies are positioned to make it through and thrive in this recession. Particularly companies that carry a lot of cash.

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Glad to be here! Thanks, Tony.

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