12 Comments

From an epidemiologist: All models are wrong. Some are useful.

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Apr 29, 2020Liked by Tony Mecia

Thank you for providing accurate information and explaining what is really happening instead of being a doom and gloom shrill like most of the media in the nation and here locally. You were the only one to question the massive 3000 bed field hospital that was downsized to the 500 bed field hospital and finally cancelled altogether. We need accurate information like you are posting not scare tactics. I know this virus is severe but most of the media (not you) has tried to frighten people into submission. It is nice to see someone out there reporting facts and questioning some comments. That is still the American way even during a crisis.

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Apr 29, 2020Liked by Tony Mecia

Thank you for gathering this information! It is exactly what I've been looking for since the Covid outbreak began.

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I would love the answer to these two questions: How many Covid hospitalizations are from people going in sick with Covid symptoms vs. finding out the patient is Covid positive because they are testing anyone admitted to the hospital? That data is important. Also- why are they only including the Atrium and Novant testing numbers in the data? I would suspect many people that are asymptomatic, but just want a test might be going to CVS or other alternate testing sites. If those facilities are producing much lower positive numbers, our percent positive in the community may not be anywhere as bad as we are being led to believe.

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960 deaths among 10.5 million people over 3 months is 0.009%. An incredibly small number. Even smaller when you consider that 62% (595) were from nursing homes. That means only 365 deaths among the general population

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If we want a lower percent of positive cases, start testing people who obviously are healthy. The number is skewed high because only people with a likely hood of being sick are being tested

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Also, why not include testing done outside of Atrium and Novant?

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Hi. Question on Saturday state numbers. How many test were performed? I thought I read somewhere there were over 20000 tests. If that is right how did they get 10% on 1100 positives? Thanks

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author

It is confusing, and on the tests, there is an issue of dates. The state reported yesterday that the total number of new tests completed rose by 26,385 (to a total of 329,582), and that the total number of new cases rose by 1,107 (which implies a very low positive percentage). But on their chart, they listed the number of tests completed on 5/23 as 8,077. I believe that on their chart, they list the percentage of positive tests on that date -- the implication is that they sometimes receive reports of tests completed on earlier dates. The numbers don't always seem to line up exactly, but I think they are trying to give an accurate picture of testing on a certain date, even if they receive data from previous dates.

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New cases do not translate to hospitalizations or deaths. How about including those trends? Also, where are the new cases coming from? Nursing homes? Charlotte as experienced 7 deaths over the last 12 days.

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author

But good point. More to come.

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New cases can result in hospitalizations and deaths, but since they are expanding the testing criteria, they are testing people who are not as sick, so those percentages are falling. The vast majority of those testing positive won't have to go to the hospital. We've looked at all of these trends previously - most recently on 5/14 (scroll down). Most of the deaths are from long-term care facilities, but positive tests come from all over.

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