Most likely CATS plan favors rail from airport to Bojangles Coliseum

New scenarios released Wednesday for public debate; take our poll

Jan 23, 2025

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The leading contender of 4 plans released this week would shorten the Silver Line and end the Blue Line in Pineville instead of Ballantyne

by Steve Harrison
WFAE

The Charlotte Area Transit System on Wednesday released four new scenarios of how it could spend billions of dollars from a proposed one-cent sales tax — specifically which new train lines could be built and which ones couldn’t.

Almost five years after Charlotte and CATS started working on the updated transit plan, Wednesday’s meeting shows how, in many ways, that plan remains embryonic. Local officials are hoping this is the year they get permission from the General Assembly to go to Mecklenburg County voters and ask for a sales tax. (Yes, it’s a lot of steps.)

Of the four scenarios presented Wednesday, Mecklenburg Commissioner Leigh Altman, a member of the Metropolitan Transit Commission, said she liked the transit system’s first funding proposal.

That version is a rail-focused plan that would:

build the Red Line commuter rail line to Lake Norman
fully fund the construction of the Gold Line streetcar
extend the Lynx Blue Line to Pineville
build the Silver Line light rail from the airport, across uptown to Bojangles Coliseum

Notably, that scenario wouldn’t fully extend the Blue Line to the Ballantyne Corporate Park as originally envisioned. The train would stop instead in Pineville at the Carolina Place Mall.

That scenario wouldn’t bring the Silver Line to Matthews, either, though it would bring rails farther east than officials had proposed in the spring, including likely rail stops near the First Ward, Elizabeth, Chantilly and Plaza-Midwood neighborhoods.

The Metropolitan Transit Commission voted to send all four scenarios to the public for feedback. Altman said it’s time to push forward — with the hope that Republican lawmakers OK the tax-increase plan early enough this year to build support from voters ahead of a referendum.

“The draft legislation that we hope the General Assembly will take up was passed by the elected officials who represent 97% of this community,” Altman said. “I don’t think we could be stronger. We need to recognize that we have a very high level of consensus.”

Matthews Mayor John Higdon voted no. He’s upset the Silver Line rail won’t reach Matthews, as had originally been proposed.

The other three funding scenarios include bus-rapid transit — either between uptown and Matthews or for the entire line. You can see them here:

CATS unveiled four possibilities for the transit system on Wednesday. The next step is to receive public feedback. You can vote in our poll at the bottom of this newsletter. (Image from CATS presentation)

‘Fiscally constrained’

CATS made the recommendations because Charlotte’s proposed transit legislation caps the amount of money for trains at 40% of new tax revenue. The original plan had envisioned more than twice that amount going to rail.

As for the four scenarios, Cagle said he didn’t have a recommendation. And Altman was the only MTC member besides Higdon to express an opinion.

But it’s likely the first scenario will move forward because it spends the most money on trains. The public — and politicians — generally prefer rail transit to buses.

What CATS omitted and prioritized

But the presentation left out some critical information and glossed over other potential sticking points:

◼️ No option for rail to Matthews: CATS did not fully explore ways to build the Silver Line as light rail from uptown to east Charlotte and possibly Matthews.

Though the Matthews-Silver Line controversy has dominated the transit discussion in recent months, CATS did not fully follow through with Matthews’ request to study how much money it would cost to build the Silver Line from uptown to the town limits, or near there.

Instead, it proposed building a light-rail line from the airport to Bojangles Coliseum.

It did not propose building bus-rapid transit from the airport to uptown, and then rail from uptown to east Charlotte or the edge of Matthews.

Silver line Project Vicinity map from morehead to CPCC levine

As originally envisioned, the Silver Line would have been rail between uptown and Matthews. But doubt emerged last spring about whether there was money for that. One option released Wednesday would run rail from the airport to Bojangles Coliseum, which would likely include stops at 11th Street (connecting with the Blue Line), First Ward, Central Avenue, Pecan Avenue and Morningside Avenue. (Image from CATS)

◼️ No ridership projections: When transit systems decide which rail lines to build, a key factor is ridership: What project is the most effective to move the most people?

CATS did not include ridership estimates in its presentation, even though it’s been discussing the rail lines and transit plan since 2020.

In an interview after the meeting, Cagle said CATS has some of those numbers. It’s unclear why they weren’t presented to the MTC or the public.

◼️ No option that excludes extension of Gold Line: All four scenarios fully fund extensions of the Gold Line streetcar, which has been one of the transit system’s poorest performing products in terms of ridership, reliability and cost effectiveness. Under all scenarios, the streetcar would be extended to the west along Beatties Ford Road and to the east along Central Avenue to the old Eastland Mall site.

CATS projected the current streetcar would carry 4,100 people on the average weekday. Streetcar ridership is increasing, but it still carries only about 2,000 people on the average weekday.

In addition, CATS has previously said that it doesn’t make sense to build more of the Gold Line unless the streetcar operates in its own right-of-way, instead of running on tracks embedded in the road. It doesn’t appear there are any plans to do that.

Cagle said the Gold Line was included in all four scenarios because it’s a relatively low-cost project. The extension to the west is projected to cost $380 million and the extension to the east is projected to cost $465 million.

That’s less than a tenth the cost of the Silver Line from uptown to Matthews, now projected to cost $4.8 billion.

But if the Gold Line extension to the east were scrapped, that money would potentially allow CATS to build more than a mile of light rail to east Charlotte or anywhere else.

It should be noted that the streetcar is a priority for many Charlotte City Council members.

◼️ No option to avoid higher bus spending: All four scenarios invest heavily in the bus system, with $522 million in new capital costs by 2031.

The “Better Bus” plan would increase bus service hours by 50%. The 15 busiest routes would have buses running every 15 minutes, and all other routes would have buses arriving at least every 30 minutes. It also would fund “microtransit” — an effort to create an Uber-like product in suburban areas. That service will start in late February.

There was no mention of how many riders the expanded bus service might attract.

And that’s important because, on average, CATS buses are mostly empty today.

Bus ridership is down 65% from a 2013 peak, while service hours are down only 15%. The average bus in 2013 had 10 people on board at any one time; that’s fallen to just a little more than four people on board in 2023.

CATS believes that, after a large expansion, the bus system will become convenient enough that people will flock to use it.

The proposed legislation mandates at least 40% of sales tax money be spent on roads and no more than 40% be spent on trains. By default, the rest of the money goes to buses.

◼️ No re-examination of airport station: Higdon asked about the airport light-rail station being on Wilkinson Boulevard, one mile from the airport terminal, as opposed to being closer to the terminal.

Cagle said the station will be connected to the terminal by a second train.

“And it will be connected with what passengers view as rail,” he said. “The name of the technology is an Automated People Mover. It’s a driverless vehicle that you see frequently at many airports. You board it, (and) it’s a train that takes you between terminals or to the terminal.”

Cagle, who was formerly the director of Charlotte’s airport, added that the people mover train is in the airport’s master plan.

The airport, however, said that’s not necessarily correct.

The airport said Wednesday that “the alignment (for a people mover) isn’t depicted in the master plan.”

It said it designed the parking decks “to accept a people mover alignment” but the mode of transportation “can be a number of different options, and a train is certainly one of those options. It would be premature to prescribe that at this time in light of rapidly progressing infrastructure and technology developments.”

In other words, passengers might go from the light-rail station to the terminal on a train. They might also go to the terminal on a bus. And it’s possible that bus could be in regular traffic.

◼️ Poll results not publicly shared: CATS held an online survey in December and January about the transit plan. One question was which type of transit people would like to see prioritized.

The survey wasn’t a scientific poll. It could be skewed by well-organized groups making sure their supporters participate.

But CATS conducted the survey — and didn’t include the results in Wednesday’s public presentation. (It was given to MTC members as part of a written packet of information.)

The highest-scoring rail line was the Silver Line from uptown to the airport, with 850 votes in favor. That’s likely to be built.

The second highest-scoring rail line was the Silver Line from uptown to Matthews with 780 votes in favor. There is no scenario in which that will be built.

In the middle was Better Bus (580 votes) and the Red Line to Lake Norman (528 votes). Both of those are slated to be built.

The projects with the smallest support were the Blue Line to Pineville/Ballantyne (393 votes); then the Gold Line streetcar to Central Avenue (360 votes); and then the Gold Line to Beatties Ford Road (223 votes).

Both segments of the Gold Line — which had the smallest amount of support — would be built in every funding scenario.

That suggests what people want isn’t what they are getting.

The poll is arguably not a good way to map out a multi-billion dollar transit plan. But then why have it in the first place?

Steve Harrison is a reporter with WFAE, Charlotte’s NPR news source. He has been covering transit and other local issues in Charlotte since 2007. Reach him at sharrison@wfae.com.

Related Transit Time article:

“The basics of Charlotte’s new transit plan” (Aug. 22, 2024)

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Your turn: Time to vote

Which plan released this week do you think makes the most sense?

Scenario 1: New Silver Line as rail from airport to Bojangles Coliseum. Extend Blue Line rail to Pineville.
Scenario 2: New Silver Line as rail from airport to uptown and as bus rapid transit from uptown to Matthews. Extend Blue Line rail to Pineville.
Scenario 3: New Silver Line as bus rapid transit from airport to Matthews. Extend Blue Line rail to Ballantyne.
Scenario 4: New Silver Line as bus rapid transit from airport to Matthews. Extend Blue Line as bus rapid transit to Ballantyne.

(The Red Line commuter rail, extensions of the Gold Line streetcar and “Better Bus” are part of all 4 scenarios)

Feel free to leave a comment, too. We will publish some and share poll results in the coming weeks.

The Charlotte Ledger