New transit hurdle: Federal funds to be tied to high marriage rates

New guidelines could shake up how transit money flows to cities

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Charlotte’s $25B transit plan depends on federal funding, but the new administration aims to steer transit money to cities with high birth and marriage rates; How Charlotte might fare

Charlotte’s transit plan is counting on billions in federal money, but a new directive from the U.S. Department of Transportation seeks to tie transit grants to communities with high marriage and birth rates. (AI-generated photo illustration from Dall-E 3/ChatGPT)

by Steve Harrison
WFAE

On his first day as U.S. Transportation Secretary last week, Sean Duffy signed new memos directing how the DOT is going to award money for highways, airports and transit.

To “strengthen American families,” Duffy said the DOT would “give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average.” He also said the DOT’s funding decisions will be based on “sound economic principles and analysis supported by rigorous cost-benefit requirements and data-driven decisions.”

The memo singles out transit funding by name (the Capital Investment Grant program) as being impacted by the changes.

The new guidance has bewildered transit boosters, who want dollars to flow to dense cities with high transit ridership that are making big-dollar investments in new rail lines and bus rapid transit corridors.

New York City, for instance, has a low birth rate and a low marriage rate. But it’s dependent on transit. Does it make sense not to spend money there?

Closer to home, Charlotte wants to build billions of dollars of new rail lines, and possibly new bus rapid transit lines. The city wants to build the Red Line commuter train to Lake Norman; extend the Lynx Blue Line to Ballantyne; build light rail to the airport and possibly east Charlotte; and extend the Gold Line streetcar.

The plan depends on receiving billions of dollars in federal grants.

So, what does the Duffy memo mean for Charlotte?

Let’s first look at how Mecklenburg County fares on the two metrics of marriages and births.

• Births: Mecklenburg’s birth rate is above the national average, according to data from the county Health Department: 13.1 births per 1,000 people. The birth rate for the nation is 11.

• Marriages: But the county’s marriage rate is far below the national average, according to Opportunity Insights, produced by Harvard researchers who study economic mobility. (There are different ways to measure marriage rates, and it is unclear what figures the administration might use.) [Edited 2/13/25 to explain other ways to measure marriage rates]

Mecklenburg County’s marriage rate is far below the national average, with 40% married at age 35, compared with 52% nationally, according to Opportunity Insights.

What if Charlotte doesn’t qualify for money under the new rules? What if there’s less money for transit projects overall?

To understand the implications of the Jan. 29 memo, Transit Time spoke with one of the nation’s foremost transit experts, Peter Rogoff.

He led the Federal Transit Administration in President Obama’s first term and was Under Secretary of Transportation for Policy in Obama’s second term. He then led Seattle’s transit system, Sound Transit, for six years.

Rogoff said it’s not uncommon for administrations to “put their imprint” on how they want transportation dollars spent. He noted the Biden administration enacted its “Justice40 Initiative,” which sought to ensure that 40% of funding for things like clean energy, affordable housing, transit and clean water go to “disadvantaged communities that are marginalized by underinvestment and overburdened by pollution.”

But he argues the new Trump administration memo goes farther than what the law allows.

“These are seemingly created more from ideologues in Washington, D.C., than any grounding in the laws governing aviation, highways and transit,” he said.

He said the areas with the most to fear are big cities in Democratic-controlled states — places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland and New York.

“There’s a lot of overlap between the cities who have participated the most in the (Capital Investment Grant) program and the cities with the lowest birth rates,” he said.

In theory, that could help Charlotte, a place where only marriage rates are lagging the national average.

But Rogoff said there’s another possibility: The Trump administration could decide that because so many cities no longer qualify, there’s no reason to continue funding transit.

“You could justify sizable budget cuts to these programs by arguing these cities no longer qualify and demand for the program is a lot lower,” he said.

Rogoff said Trump wanted to drastically scale back transit funding in his first term but was convinced not to.

The Charlotte Area Transit System’s most recent financial projections call for the federal government to pay for 49% of transit projects costing less than $3 billion and 40% of transit projects costing more.

Rogoff said that under Trump, it’s no longer realistic to count on that much money.

He led Seattle’s transit system in Trump’s first term and secured two funding agreements for transit projects.

“They were hard to get,” Rogoff said. “That was in part because (Trump) wanted to zero-out the program. But we did get two. One was (a federal share of) 26% and the other was for 33%.”

Other thoughts:

◼️ The memo clearly takes aim at blue cities/blue states. In addition to a preference for communities with high marriage and birth rates, the DOT also says communities receiving funding must not have vaccine or mask mandates, and they must also cooperate with federal immigration enforcement.

Charlotte and Mecklenburg County do not have mask mandates. And after the General Assembly passed a law requiring sheriffs to comply with federal immigration authorities, Mecklenburg County is no longer considered a sanctuary city. Mecklenburg Sheriff Garry McFadden said last month that he is cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

And Trump seems to like North Carolina. He won the state twice. He helped pick former state GOP party chair Michael Whatley to co-lead the Republican National Committee with Lara Trump — who’s from Wilmington and graduated from N.C. State. And the state’s two senators are Republicans.

Could New York and San Francisco’s loss be Charlotte’s gain?

◼️ If Trump’s DOT Is hostile to funding transit, Charlotte could always wait and hope a Democrat wins the White House in 2028.

◼️ And if federal money doesn’t materialize, it doesn’t mean Charlotte’s plans go belly-up. If the state legislature and voters approve a hike in the sales tax, there would still be billions for roads, sidewalks and bike lanes. The bus system would also receive hundreds of millions of dollars.

The Red Line commuter train to Lake Norman could still be built, though it would require the city spending hundreds of millions of additional dollars. But there would be hardly any money left for another rail project.

Steve Harrison is a reporter with WFAE, Charlotte’s NPR news source. Reach him at sharrison@wfae.com.

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