What’s next for Charlotte’s transit ambitions
An in-depth look at the new transit bill and its prospects
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There’s finally a bill before the General Assembly, and legislative leaders sound more receptive than ever. But it could be at least several months before we know if the plan is a go.
N.C. House Speaker Destin Hall (center) and N.C. Senate leader Phil Berger (right) told business and political leaders at the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance on Monday that a bill advancing Charlotte’s transit plan might move forward this year.
By Steve Harrison and Tony Mecia
To start building more transit and roads, Charlotte needs voters to approve.
Before getting voters to approve, it needs a state law.
And before there’s a state law, there needs to be a bill.
This week, Charlotte finally got one.
The transportation bill introduced in the N.C. Senate on Monday wasn’t a surprise — its text had been public for months. And it doesn’t represent a tectonic shift — it’s still not a sure thing, and there are plenty of obstacles before the money starts flowing for more buses, rail lines and road construction.
Yet it is a significant moment for the city and supporters, who continue to gather momentum toward getting it done.
In this issue of Transit Time, we’re taking a closer look at what happens next and digging deeper into the comments from N.C. House Speaker Destin Hall and Senate leader Phil Berger, who came to Charlotte on Monday and shared their views on the outlook for the transportation plan.
Anybody can introduce a bill. Why is this a big deal?
Transit plan backers say actually having a bill in front of the legislature is an important milestone that reflects the hard work that has been done to this point.
It is the result of negotiations last summer among the city, county and Mecklenburg’s towns. And it is also the result of work to help legislators understand Charlotte’s needs.
“Frankly, it’s five years in the making,” said Joe Bost, chief advocacy officer of the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, who recalled the process starting with the Charlotte Moves Task Force report in 2020. “Where we are present day is nothing short of remarkable, and it’s because of the business community and the public sector working hand in glove together on this issue.”
The eight-page bill would allow Meckenburg commissioners to place a referendum before voters to raise the sales tax from 7.25% to 8.25%, with the money going to a new transportation authority that would decide how to spend it, subject to limits. A separate bill (that has not yet been introduced) would establish rules for the transit authority that would control the money.
Legislative leaders in Charlotte on Monday had a more conciliatory tone than in previous years. Republicans have strong majorities in the House and Senate and control legislative committees, so the fate of the bill rests largely with Republicans.
So is it going to pass?
In Raleigh, you never know. Among supporters, we keep hearing the term “cautiously optimistic.” It sounds unlikely that anything will happen soon. Hall and Berger stressed that the legislature is focused on the state budget and Western North Carolina relief.
Hall said: “I think we're heading in the right direction. It doesn’t mean it's going to be easy. I imagine it’s going to be a bill that’s well-litigated through the General Assembly among the various committees in the chambers, and maybe something that it takes most of the long session to get to a good place on.”
While backers are upbeat about the prospects, others have taken a dimmer view of the odds for the bill. Republican strategist Andrew Dunn, in his Substack newsletter Longleaf Politics, wrote this week that “I just don’t see it getting a majority of the Republican caucus on board.” He said Charlotte’s plan lacks specifics on road-funding, has no ridership forecasts on transit and includes expanding the underperforming Gold Line streetcar. “Y’all really shouldn’t get your hopes up,” he wrote.
Backers say the next steps are to work with legislators to help move the bill through the General Assembly.
Are legislative leaders going to encourage their members to vote ‘yes’?
When asked whether he would ask Republicans to vote “yes,” Berger said he would be “encouraging my members to look at the proposal, to understand the reasons for it and to make a decision. They will have to make an individual decision.”
Hall said something similar.
While the leaders are not pushing their members to vote “yes,” it seems clear they will not urge them to vote “no,” either. And that’s a long way from Berger and former House Speaker Tim Moore’s position on the tax in early 2023 and 2024, when Moore ridiculed Charlotte’s focus on trains and bike lanes at a Business Alliance forum.
One encouraging sign for the bill: It’s not just Iredell County Sen. Vickie Sawyer who is a sponsor. The others are Bill Rabon, who chairs the powerful Rules Committee, and David Craven, who co-chairs the finance committee. Sawyer and Rabon also co-chair the transportation committee.
Backers say that is a powerful group who can get things done.
The outlook might be a little more uncertain in the House.
Hall also said the Charlotte bill could be changed by his members in committee.
Could that change result in a smaller tax?
If Republicans are hesitant to approve a tax increase, would reducing the tax from one-cent to a half-cent be an option?
Berger said that’s unlikely.
“Folks at the local level have said, ‘This is what we need,’” Berger said. “I would think there would need to be a compelling case to make some sort of case to make a decision that would be markedly different.”
Are there any other changes that could be coming?
Hall said it’s important to make sure “the funds are efficiently spent, based on data.”
He added that the trains and projects should “help people move from A to B and decisions are not based on politics and personality and that we aren’t sending trains to nowhere.”
Transit Time wasn’t able to ask a follow-up question if Hall was talking about any specific issue — or whether he was making just a generic statement about protecting public money.
All four of Charlotte’s transit scenarios call for the city to finish the Gold Line streetcar, a project whose ridership is less than half of what was projected.
Will Republicans object to that? It’s unknown.
Matthews is still dead-set against the tax. What did the GOP say about that?
Matthews Mayor John Higdon is urging people to vote against the tax. He and Matthews commissioners are upset that the bill allocates only 40% of sales tax revenue for rail transit — which makes it difficult to bring the Silver Line light rail to the town.
At a meeting this week, Matthews officials estimated that raising the sales tax from 7.25% to 8.25% as the transit plan envisions would add $283 in sales taxes a year to a family with a household income of $106,000, which is the median in Matthews:
Matthews officials have calculated that the median household in Matthews would pay $2,334 a year in sales taxes if the transit plan goes through, up from the current $2,051 a year — a $283 increase. (Slide from Town of Matthews presentation)
The town has hired a lobbyist to advance its views in Raleigh, WFAE reported last month.
When asked about Matthews’ opposition at Monday’s event, Berger seemed unconcerned.
“I don’t recall having any specific conversation (with anyone from Matthews),” he said. “We understand that there have been a lot of compromises bringing this together. I understand there are still conversations.”
Hall said Republican House member Tricia Cotham’s opinion would guide her colleagues. She’s the only Republican House member in Mecklenburg, and she represents a district that consists of Mint Hill, Matthews and parts of south Charlotte.
Mint Hill leaders support the tax.
“Her voice carries a great weight with our caucus,” Hall said.
(Cotham attended a meeting between Charlotte officials and legislators earlier this year. She supports the transportation plan but has said little about it. She did not attend Monday’s event at which Hall and Berger appeared.)
Does the transit bill being tied to the budget jeopardize a November referendum?
Possibly.
The bill authorizing the tax goes into effect only when the state budget is passed. That could be in June or July. It could also stretch into the fall.
Legislative sessions in odd-numbered years are known as “long sessions,” and in the last one in 2023, the legislature passed the budget on Sept. 22, and it became law without the governor’s signature on Oct. 3. In 2021, the General Assembly passed a budget on Nov. 17, and the governor signed it Nov. 18.
Mecklenburg Elections director Michael Dickerson said Mecklenburg commissioners would need to vote to place the tax on the ballot no later than mid-September in order for the referendum to appear on the Nov. 4, 2025, ballot, which will include municipal and school board races. That’s because he has to get the ballot finalized to send out mail ballots.
The Charlotte Regional Business Alliance — which would likely take the lead in a marketing campaign for the tax — would still have enough time to mount a five- or six-week blitz to get voters on board.
There has been little publicly available polling on the question of raising sales taxes to pay for transit. A 2021 poll by a business group found 45% of respondents opposed to a sales tax increase, with 38% open to the idea of a full 1 percentage point increase. Internal polling by the Charlotte Area Transit System shows that strong majorities of local residents have a favorable view of CATS and believe it serves an important purpose, though about half say they don’t use public transportation, and an additional 34% say they ride it less than once a month.
If Charlotte misses the November ballot, there’s always 2026. There’s no reason the referendum couldn’t be on the March 2026 primary ballot, for instance. But the smaller the turnout, the greater influence a campaign from a discontented group (*cough* Matthews) could have — meaning a primary with low turnout could get dicey.
Will the Trump administration’s federal cutbacks have any effect on the plans?
While the increase in the sales tax receives most of the attention, another major component of Charlotte’s plan is federal funding. The sales tax is estimated to raise $19.4 billion over 30 years, while federal grants and fares are estimated at $5.9 billion.
Raising the sales tax in Mecklenburg by 1 percentage point, to 8.25%, would raise an estimated $19.4 billion over 30 years, backers say. Financial projections released by the city in August also figure on $5.9 billion in additional funding, most of it from the federal government. (Slide from city of Charlotte presentation)
It is unknown whether Charlotte’s plan would qualify for federal grants, which are competitive and based on passenger estimates, which Charlotte has not studied. And under the new administration, the amounts available could be cut back, and the conditions for awarding grants could change.
Charlotte developer Ned Curran, former chair of the N.C. Board of Transportation, said the plan needs to move forward regardless of the political winds in Washington, which are always changing: “We can’t afford to wait. The federal [funding] is always going to move around.”
Steve Harrison is a reporter with WFAE, Charlotte’s NPR news source. Reach him at sharrison@wfae.com.
Tony Mecia is executive editor of The Charlotte Ledger. Reach him at tony@cltledger.com.
Related Transit Time articles:
“The basics of Charlotte’s new transit plan” (Aug. 22, 2024)
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Tickets now available for Regional Transportation Summit on April 24; hear from state and local leaders
The upcoming Regional Transportation Summit will bring together key leaders and experts to discuss the future of mobility and infrastructure in the Charlotte region.
Organized by the nonprofit South Charlotte Partners, the event will take place on Thursday, April 24, from 8 a.m. to noon at TPC Piper Glen. Topics will include major transportation initiatives, infrastructure development and mobility strategies affecting the region’s growth.
Speakers are expected to include Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, City Councilman Ed Driggs and representatives from the N.C. Department of Transportation, Charlotte Douglas International Airport and the commercial real estate development industry.
The event is open to the public. Tickets are $100 and include breakfast. Early registration is encouraged due to high demand, and sponsorship opportunities are available.
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