CATS: No ridership projections went into the 4 latest transit scenarios

The plans include the Red Line commuter train and Gold Line streetcar extensions

You’re reading Transit Time, a weekly newsletter for Charlotte people who leave the house. Cars, buses, light rail, bikes, scooters … if you use it to get around the city, we write about it. Transit Time is produced in partnership between The Charlotte Ledger and WFAE.

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Charlotte’s transit system has narrowed its list to 4 possibilities without studying the number of passengers

by Steve Harrison
WFAE

The Charlotte Area Transit System recently acknowledged that it didn’t create ridership projections before a presentation on its transit expansion plans.

After initially telling WFAE that it could likely provide ridership numbers, CATS later said in a statement that “the purpose of this analysis was limited to evaluating financially feasible options, not to evaluate ridership projections for the approved projects.”

CATS presented four scenarios last month of which train lines and bus rapid-transit lines could be built if voters agree to raise Mecklenburg’s sales tax by 1 percentage point, to 8.25%. While officials have made no final decisions about the transportation plan, the four scenarios presented have already eliminated numerous options — even without knowing which lines would carry the most people for the least amount of money.

In its original transit plan from earlier this decade, CATS planned to spend as much as 90% of new sales tax revenue on rail transit. Republican legislative leaders said that’s too much money for trains, so the new proposal calls for 40% of tax revenue to be spent on roads and no more than 40% of tax revenue to be spent on rail transit. The other 20% would be spent on buses.

With less money for rail transit, CATS and consultant Infrastrategies went back to the drawing board last fall to create a new plan — or at least four scenarios for different parts of a new plan. (Hey, nothing’s simple in a decades-long transit expansion, right?)

Implementing any big plan depends on the General Assembly passing legislation and voters approving a sales tax increase.

Here are CATS’ four scenarios:

All four scenarios envision building the Red Line commuter train to Lake Norman. That’s mandated in the draft legislation for the tax — an acknowledgement that north Mecklenburg has been waiting more than 25 years for the train and that the support of Davidson, Cornelius and Huntersville is crucial.

But all four scenarios also build two extensions of the Gold Line streetcar through central Charlotte. That project is a priority for many City Council members, even though ridership on the existing four-mile line is half of what was predicted.

The differences in the scenarios are over how CATS would build the Silver Line light rail from the airport to Matthews, as well as the Blue Line extension to Ballantyne.

◼️ CATS did not propose a scenario in which it built bus-rapid transit from uptown to the airport, and then light rail from uptown to east Charlotte.

It’s possible that a six-mile train from uptown to east Charlotte might carry more passengers than a six-mile train from uptown to the airport. Or it might not.

We don’t know because CATS hasn’t estimated that, or at least released it publicly.

CATS made some ridership projections in 2023 for the Silver Line from Matthews to uptown to determine which route through uptown would be best. CATS later acknowledged those forecasts contained some errors and were called “really suspect.”

◼️ One of the scenarios has two trains potentially cannibalizing riders from each other.

CATS has proposed building the Gold Line streetcar along Central Avenue and also the Silver Line light rail to Bojangles Coliseum. For about 1.5 miles, the two trains would run parallel to one another, with stations a four-minute walk from one another.

This scenario could make it difficult for one or both of the trains to get federal funding because they could end up cannibalizing riders from one another.

This possibility does not appear to be part of the transit system’s preliminary analysis.

The Trump administration has said it will consider a community’s birth and marriage rates when deciding how to award grants for new federal transit projects. That’s a curveball that’s left transit officials nationwide puzzled.

The same memo from the U.S. Department of Transportation also said it will rely on “rigorous economic analysis and positive cost-benefit analysis” to determine how and where to award grant money. That suggests that a rail project will need to carry a large number of passengers for the lowest cost to win funding.

CATS defended the lack of ridership estimates by saying the rapid transit corridors are all in areas where CATS already sees high demand. It noted that the Gold Line streetcar extension, for instance, would serve corridors that have the two most-used routes in the system: the Central Avenue No. 9 bus and the Beatties Ford Road No. 7 bus.

That’s true: CATS is not proposing to build a train from, say, Mint Hill to Matthews, where it would run through a thinly populated rural/exurban area and generate ridership from scratch.

But there are questions about why CATS picked those four scenarios — and whether ridership estimates would have led them to a different conclusion.

Steve Harrison is a reporter with WFAE, Charlotte’s NPR news source. Reach him at sharrison@wfae.com.

Related Transit Time articles:

• “New transit hurdle: Federal funds to be tied to high marriage rates” (Feb. 6)

• “Most likely CATS plan favors rail from airport to Bojangles Coliseum” (Jan. 23)

• “The basics of Charlotte’s new transit plan” (Aug. 22, 2024)

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Tickets now available for Regional Transportation Summit on April 24; hear from state and local leaders

The upcoming Regional Transportation Summit will bring together key leaders and experts to discuss the future of mobility and infrastructure in the Charlotte region.

Organized by the nonprofit South Charlotte Partners, the event will take place on Thursday, April 24, from 8 a.m. to noon at TPC Piper Glen. Topics will include major transportation initiatives, infrastructure development and mobility strategies affecting the region’s growth.

Speakers are expected to include Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, City Councilman Ed Driggs and representatives from the N.C. Department of Transportation, Charlotte Douglas International Airport and the commercial real estate development industry.

The event is open to the public. Tickets are $100 and include breakfast. Early registration is encouraged due to high demand, and sponsorship opportunities are available.

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In brief…

• New CATS ride share service starts Monday: The Charlotte Area Transit System is launching its new microtransit service, CATS Micro, that will serve northern Mecklenburg beginning Monday. It is an on-demand shared ride service that costs $2.20, the same as a bus or rail fare. Details here.

• Legislative leaders headed to Business Alliance: N.C. House Speaker Destin Hall and Senate leader Phil Berger could provide some clarity on the outlook for the Charlotte region’s transit plan at a meeting with civic and business leaders at the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance. It is scheduled for Monday. (Charlotte Business Journal, subscriber-only)

• State leaders seek clarity on high-speed rail: State officials are seeking assurances that the federal government will follow through on its pledge of $1.1 billion in grants to help pay for a high-speed rail line between Raleigh and Richmond, Va. The Trump administration has paused some rail grants as it reviews federal spending. (News & Observer)

• In memoriam: Donald Shoup, a professor of urban studies at the University of California-Los Angeles, passed away this month at age 86. He’s known for his influential book “The High Cost of Free Parking,” which transformed the way cities are built and managed. His ideas have been adopted by more than 3,000 cities worldwide, helping to reduce traffic, create green space and make cities more walkable. (New York Times)

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